AN INVESTIGATION, &c.

AMONG the many cauſes that have been aſſigned of the preſent high price of proviſions, I am much inclined to ſuſpect, that the principal one has hitherto eſcaped detection; at leaſt, in the diſcuſſions on the ſubject, either in print or converſation, which have fallen within my know⯑ledge, the cauſe, which I conceive to have ope⯑rated moſt ſtrongly towards increaſing the price of the neceſſaries of life, has not yet been ſug⯑geſted. There are ſome diſorders, which, though they ſcarcely admit of a cure, or even of any conſiderable mitigation, are ſtill capable of being made greatly worſe. In ſuch misfortunes it is of great importance to know the deſperate nature of [2] the diſeaſe. The next ſtep to the alleviation of pain, is the bearing it with compoſure, and not aggravating it by impatience and irritation.

It cannot admit of a doubt with perſons of ſenſe and information, that, during the laſt year, there was a ſcarcity, to a certain extent, of all ſorts of grain; but it muſt be at the ſame time ac⯑knowledged, that the price was higher than the degree of that ſcarcity would at firſt ſight appear to warrant.

In the Summer of 1799, in the courſe of a northern tour, I paſſed through Sweden. There was at that time a general dearth of corn through⯑out the country, owing to a long drought the preceding year. In the province of Wurmland, adjoining to Norway, it approached almoſt to a famine, and the lower claſſes of people ſuffered moſt ſevere diſtreſs. At the time we were paſſing through that part of the country, which was in July, they were reduced to two moſt miſerable ſubſtitutes for bread; one, made of the inner bark of the fir, and the other, of the common ſorrel dried, and powdered. Theſe ſubſtances, though made into the uſual ſhape of their rye bread, had no affinity to it whatever in taſte, and but very little, I believe, in nouriſhment, as the effects of this miſerable food were but too viſible in their pallid and unhealthy countenances.

[3] There could be little doubt, that the degree of ſcarcity then prevailing in that part of Sweden, was conſiderably greater than any we have hitherto experienced here; and yet, as far as we could learn, the price of rye, which is the grain principally uſed for bread, had not riſen above double its uſual average; whereas in this country laſt year, in a ſcarcity, that muſt be acknowledged to be very greatly inferior in degree, wheat roſe to above three times its former price.

The continuation of extraordinary high prices, after a harveſt that was at one time looked for⯑ward to as abundant, has contributed ſtill more to aſtoniſh and perplex the public mind. Many men of ſenſe have joined in the univerſal cry of the common people, that there muſt be roguery ſomewhere; and the general indignation has fallen upon monopolizers, foreſtallers, and regraters—words, that are vented from every mouth with fearful execrations, and are applied indiſcrimi⯑nately to all middle men whatever, to every kind of trader that goes between the grower of the commodity and the conſumer.

This popular clamour, headed by the Lord Chief Juſtice, and enforced throughout the coun⯑try by the inſtructions of the grand juries, muſt make every reflecting mind tremble for the [4] future ſupply of our markets. I cannot but think, therefore, that I ſhould do an acceptable ſervice, if I could ſucceed in accounting for the preſent high price of the neceſſaries of life, without cri⯑minating a claſs of men, who, I believe, have been accuſed unjuſtly, and who, every political economiſt muſt know, are abſolutely neceſſary in the complicated machinery that diſtributes the proviſions and other commodities of a large nation.

I ought firſt to premiſe, however, that I am not intereſted in this queſtion, further than as a lover of truth, and a well-wiſher to my country. I have no ſort of connection whatever with any of theſe middle men or great farmers, who are now the objects of public indignation: and, as an individual with a ſmall fixed income, I am cer⯑tainly among that claſs of perſons on whom the high price of proviſions muſt fall the heavieſt.

To proceed to the point: I am moſt ſtrongly inclined to ſuſpect, that the attempt in moſt parts of the kingdom to increaſe the pariſh allowances in proportion to the price of corn, combined with the riches of the country, which have enabled it to proceed as far as it has done in this attempt, is, comparatively ſpeaking, the ſole cauſe, which has occaſioned the price of proviſions in this [5] country to riſe ſo much higher than the degree of ſcarcity would ſeem to warrant, ſo much higher than it would do in any other country where this cauſe did not operate.

It may appear, perhaps, at firſt, to the reader, that this cauſe is inadequate to the effect we ex⯑perience; but, if he will kindly allow me a few minutes of patient and candid attention, I hope I ſhall be able to convince him, that it is not only adequate to produce the preſent high price of proviſions of which we complain; but, admitting a real ſcarcity, that the attempt to carry it actually into execution, might raiſe the quartern loaf be⯑fore the expiration of a year, to as many ſhillings as it is now pence.

Adam Smith has moſt juſtly ſtated, that the actual price at which a commodity is ſold, is com⯑pounded of its natural price, the price at which it can be brought to market, allowing the uſual profit in times of moderate plenty, and the pro⯑portion of the ſupply to the demand. When any commodity is ſcarce, its natural price is neceſſarily forgotten, and its actual price is regulated by the exceſs of the demand above the ſupply.

Let us ſuppoſe a commodity in great requeſt by fifty people, but of which, from ſome failure in its production, there is only ſufficient to ſupply forty. If the fortieth man from the top have two [6] ſhillings which he can ſpend in this commodity, and the thirty-nine above him, more, in various proportions, and the ten below, all leſs, the ac⯑tual price of the article, according to the genuine principles of trade, will be two ſhillings. If more be aſked, the whole will not be ſold, becauſe there are only forty who have as much as two ſhillings to ſpend in the article; and there is no reaſon for aſking leſs, becauſe the whole may be diſpoſed of at that ſum.

Let us ſuppoſe, now, that ſomebody gives the ten poor men, who were excluded, a ſhilling a⯑piece. The whole fifty can now offer two ſhil⯑lings, the price which was before aſked. Ac⯑cording to every genuine principle of fair trading, the commodity muſt immediately riſe. If it do not, I would aſk, upon what principle are ten, out of the fifty who are all able to offer two ſhillings, to be rejected? For ſtill, according to the ſuppo⯑ſition, there is only enough for forty. The two ſhillings of a poor man are juſt as good as the two ſhillings of a rich one; and, if we interfere to pre⯑vent the commodity from riſing out of the reach of the pooreſt ten, whoever they may be, we muſt toſs up, draw lots, raffle, or flight, to determine who are to be excluded. It would be beyond my preſent purpoſe, to enter into the queſtion whe⯑ther [7] any of theſe modes would be more eligible, for the diſtribution of the commodities of a country, than the ſordid diſtinction of money; but certainly, according to the cuſtoms of all ci⯑vilized and enlightened nations, and according to every acknowledged principle of commercial dealing, the price muſt be allowed to riſe to that point which will put it beyond the power of ten out of the fifty to purchaſe. This point will, perhaps, be half-a-crown or more, which will now become the price of the commodity. Let another ſhilling a-piece be given to the excluded ten: all will now be able to offer half-a-crown. The price muſt in conſequence immediately riſe to three ſhillings or more, and ſo on toties quoties.

In the progreſs of this operation the ten ex⯑cluded would not be always entirely the ſame. The richeſt of the ten firſt excluded, would pro⯑bably be raiſed above the pooreſt of the firſt forty. Small changes of this kind muſt take place. The additional allowances to the pooreſt, and the weight of the high prices on thoſe above them, would tend to level the two orders; but, till a complete level had taken place, ten muſt be always excluded, and the price would always be fixed, as nearly as poſſible, at that ſum which the fortieth man at the top could afford to give. This, [8] if the donatives were continued, would raiſe the commodity to an extraordinary price, without the ſuppoſition of any combination and conſpiracy among the venders, or any kind of unfair dealing whatever.

The riſe in the price of corn, and of other pro⯑viſions, in this country, has been effected exactly in the ſame manner, though the operation may be a little more complicated; and I am firmly con⯑vinced, that it never could have reached its pre⯑ſent height, but from the ſyſtem of poor laws and pariſh allowances, which have operated preciſely in the ſame mode as the donatives of a ſhilling in the inſtance I have juſt adduced.

The harveſt of 1799 was bad, both in quality and quantity. Few people could deny that there appeared to be a very conſiderable deficiency of produce: and the price of the load of wheat roſe in conſequence almoſt immediately to £. 20. I returned from the North in the beginning of No⯑vember, and found the alarm ſo great and general, and the price of corn ſo high, that I remember thinking that it was probably fully adequate to the degree of the deficiency, and, taking into con⯑ſideration the proſpect of importation from the very early alarm, that it would not riſe much higher during the year. In this conjecture, it [9] appears that I was much miſtaken; but I have very little doubt that in any other country equally rich, yet without the ſyſtem of poor laws and pa⯑riſh allowances, the price would never have ex⯑ceeded £.25 the load of wheat; and that this ſum would have been ſufficiently high to have excluded ſuch a number of people from their uſual conſumption, as to make the deficient crop, with the quantity imported, laſt throughout the year.

The ſyſtem of poor laws, and pariſh allowances, in this country, and I will add, to their honour, the humanity and generoſity of the higher and middle claſſes of ſociety, naturally and neceſſarily altered this ſtate of things. The poor com⯑plained to the juſtices that their wages would not enable them to ſupply their families in the ſingle article of bread. The juſtices very humanely, and I am far from ſaying improperly, liſtened to their complaints, inquired what was the ſmalleſt ſum on which they could ſupport their families, at the then price of wheat, and gave an order of relief on the pariſh accordingly. The poor were now enabled, for a ſhort time, to purchaſe nearly their uſual quantity of flour; but the ſtock in the country was not ſufficient, even with the proſpect of importation, to allow of the uſual diſtribution [10] to all its members. The crop was conſuming too faſt. Every market-day the demand exceeded the ſupply; and thoſe whoſe buſineſs it was to judge on theſe ſubjects, felt convinced, that in a month or two the ſcarcity would be greater than it was at that time. Thoſe who were able, there⯑fore, kept back their corn. In ſo doing, they undoubtedly conſulted their own intereſt; but they, as undoubtedly, whether with the intention or not is of no conſequence, conſulted the true intereſt of the ſtate: for, if they had not kept it back, too much would have been conſumed, and there would have been a famine inſtead of a ſcar⯑city at the end of the year.

The corn, therefore, naturally roſe. The poor were again diſtreſſed. Freſh complaints were made to the juſtices, and a further relief granted; but, like the water from the mouth of Tantalus, the corn ſtill ſlipped from the graſp of the poor; and roſe again ſo as to diſable them from purchaſing a ſufficiency to keep their families in health. The alarm now became ſtill greater, and more ge⯑neral ^*. The juſtices in their individual capa⯑cities [11] were not thought competent to determine on the proper modes of relief in the preſent criſis, a general meeting of the magiſtrates was called, aided by the united wiſdom of other gentlemen of the county; but the reſult was merely the con⯑tinuation and extenſion of the former ſyſtem of relief; and, to ſay the truth, I hardly ſee what elſe could have been done. In ſome pariſhes this re⯑lief was given in the ſhape of flour; in others, which was certainly better, in money, accompa⯑nied with a recommendation not to ſpend the whole of it in wheaten bread, but to adopt ſome other kind of food. All, however, went upon the principle of inquiring what was the uſual con⯑ſumption of flour in the different families, and of enabling them to purchaſe nearly the ſame quan⯑tity that they did before the ſcarcity. With this additional command of money in the lower claſſes, and the conſequent increaſed conſumption, the number of purchaſers at the then price would na⯑turally exceed the ſupply. The corn would in conſequence continue riſing. The poor's rates in many pariſhes increaſed from four ſhillings in the pound to fourteen; the price of wheat neceſſarily kept pace with them; and before the end of the year was at near forty pounds a load; when pro⯑bably [12] without the operation of this cauſe it would not have exceeded twenty or twenty-five.

Some of the poor would naturally make uſe of their additional command of money to pur⯑chaſe butter, cheeſe, bacon, pickled pork, rice, potatoes, &c. Theſe commodities are all more limited in quantity than corn; and would, there⯑fore, more ſuddenly feel the increaſed demand. If butter, cheeſe, bacon, pickled pork, and the coarſer parts of meat, had continued at their uſual price, they would have been purchaſed by ſo many, to come in aid of an inferior kind of bread, or to give a reliſh and additional nouriſh⯑ment to their potatoes and rice, that the ſupply would not have been half adequate to the quan⯑tity of theſe articles that was wanted. Theſe commodities, therefore, roſe as naturally and as neceſſarily as the corn; and, according to the ge⯑nuine principles of fair trade, their price was fixed at that ſum which only ſuch a number could afford to give, as would enable the ſupply to anſwer the demand.

To fix upon this ſum is the great object of every dealer and ſpeculator [...] every commodity whatever, and about which [...] muſt, of courſe, exerciſe his private judgment. A reflecting [13] mind, far from being aſtoniſhed that there are now and then errors in ſpeculation, muſt feel much greater aſtoniſhment that there are ſo few; and that the ſupplies of a large nation, whether plentiful or ſcanty, ſhould be diſtributed ſo equally throughout the year. Moſt happily for ſociety, individual intereſt is, in theſe caſes, ſo cloſely and intimately interwoven with the public intereſt, that one cannot gain or loſe without a gain or loſs to the other. The man who refuſes to ſend his corn to market when it is at twenty pounds a load, becauſe he thinks that in two months time it will be at thirty, if he be right in his judgment, and ſucceed in his ſpecula⯑tion, is a poſitive and decided benefactor to the ſtate; becauſe he keeps his ſupply to that pe⯑riod when the ſtate is much more in want of it; and if he and ſome others did not keep it back in that manner, inſtead of its being thirty in two months, it would be forty or fifty.

If he be wrong in his ſpeculation, he loſes per⯑haps very conſiderably himſelf, and the ſtate ſuffers a little; becauſe, had he brought his corn to market at twenty, the price would have fallen ſooner, and the event ſhowed that there was corn enough in the country to allow of it; but the ſlight evil that the ſtate ſuffers in this caſe [14] is almoſt wholly compenſated by the glut in the market, when the corn is brought out, which makes the price fall below what it would have been otherwiſe.

I am far from ſaying that there can be no ſuch thing as monopoly, and the other hard words that have been ſo much talked of. In a commodity of a confined nature, within the purchaſe of two or three large capitals, or of a company of merchants, we all know that it has often exiſted; and, in a very few inſtances, the article may have been in part deſtroyed, to en⯑hance the price, as the Dutch Company de⯑ſtroyed the nutmeg-trees in their ſpice iſlands: but in an article which is in ſo many hands as corn is, in this country, monopoly, to any perni⯑cious extent, may ſafely be pronounced impoſ⯑ſible. Where are the capitals, or where is the company of merchants, rich enough to buy ſuch a quantity of corn, as would make it an⯑ſwer to them to deſtroy, or, which is the ſame thing, not to ſell a great part of it? As they could not, by the greateſt exertions, purchaſe one fourth of all the corn in the country, it is evident that, if any conſiderable part of their ſtock remained unſold, they would have enriched all the other dealers in corn at their own expenſe; [15] and would not have gained half ſo much in pro⯑portion to their capital as the reſt of the farmers and cornfactors. If on the contrary all their ſtock ſold, it would be a proof that the ſpecula⯑tion had been juſt, and that the country had really benefited by it.

It ſeems now to be univerſally agreed, that the ſtock of old corn remaining on hand at the begin⯑ning of the harveſt this year was unuſually ſmall, notwithſtanding that the harveſt came on nearly a month ſooner than could have been expected in the beginning of June. This is a clear, de⯑cided, and unanſwerable proof that there had been no ſpeculations in corn that were preju⯑dicial to the country. All that the large farmers and cornfactors had done, was to raiſe the corn to that price which excluded a ſufficient number from their uſual conſumption, to enable the ſupply to laſt throughout the year. This price, however, has been moſt eſſentially and powerfully affected by the ability that has been given to the labouring poor, by means of pariſh allowances, of continuing to purchaſe wheat notwithſtanding its extraordinary riſe: and this ability muſt neceſ⯑ſarily prevent the price of corn from falling very materially, till there is an actual glut in the market; for, while the whole ſtock will go off at [16] thirty pounds a load, it cannot, on any regular principle of trade, ſink lower. I was in very great hopes, juſt before the harveſt, that ſuch a glut was about to take place; but it is now to be feared, from the nature of the preſent crop, that no ſuch happy event can be hoped for during the year.

I do not know whether I have convinced my reader that the cauſe which I have aſſigned of the preſent extraordinary price of proviſions is ad⯑equate to the effect; but I certainly feel moſt ſtrongly convinced of it myſelf; and I cannot but believe that, if he differ from me, it can only be in degree, and from thinking that the prin⯑ciple of pariſh allowances has not yet been car⯑ried far enough to produce any material effect. With regard to the principle itſelf, if it were really carried into execution, it appears to me capable almoſt of mathematical demonſtration, that, granting a real ſcarcity of one-fourth, which could not be remedied by importation, it is ad⯑equate to the effecting any height of price that the proportion of the circulating medium to the quantity of corn daily conſumed would admit.

It has often been propoſed, and more than once I believe, in the Houſe of Commons, to proportion the price of labour exactly to the [17] price of proviſions. This, though it would be always a bad plan, might paſs tolerably in years of moderate plenty, or in a country that was in the habit of a conſiderable exportation of grain. But let us ſee what would be its ope⯑ration in a real ſcarcity. We ſuppoſe, for the ſake of the argument, that by law every kind of labour is to be paid accurately in proportion to the price of corn, and that the rich are to be aſſeſſed to the utmoſt to ſupport thoſe in the ſame manner who are thrown out of employment, and fall upon the pariſh. We allow the ſcarcity to be an irremediable deficiency of one fourth of all the proviſions of the country. It is evi⯑dent that, notwithſtanding this deficiency, there would be no reaſon for economy in the labouring claſſes. The riſe of their wages, or the pariſh allowances that they would receive, would enable them to purchaſe exactly the ſame quantity of corn, or other proviſions, that they did before, whatever their price might be. The ſame quan⯑tity would of courſe be conſumed; and, accord⯑ing to the regular principles of trade, as the ſtock continued diminiſhing, the price of all the ne⯑ceſſaries of life would continue riſing, in the moſt rapid and unexampled manner. The mid⯑dle claſſes of ſociety would very ſoon be blended [18] with the poor; and the largeſt fortunes could not long ſtand againſt the accumulated preſſure of the extraordinary price of proviſions, on the one hand, and the ſtill more extraordinary aſſeſſ⯑ments for allowances to thoſe who had no other means of ſupport, on the other. The corn⯑factors and farmers would undoubtedly be the laſt that ſuffered, but, at the expiration of the three quarters of a year, what they received with one hand, they muſt give away with the other; and a moſt complete levelling of all property would take place. All would have the ſame quantity of money. All the proviſions of the country would be conſumed: and all the people would ſtarve together.

There is no kind of fear, that any ſuch tra⯑gical event ſhould ever happen in any country; but allowed myſelf to make the ſuppoſition; becauſe, it appears to me, that, in the compli⯑cated machinery of human ſociety, the effect of any particular principle frequently eſcapes from the view, even of an attentive obſerver, if it be not magnified by puſhing it to extremity.

I do not, however, by any means, intend to infer, from what I have ſaid, that the pariſh allowances have been prejudicial to the ſtate; or that, as far as the ſyſtem has been hitherto [19] purſued, or is likely to be purſued, in this country, that it is not one of the beſt modes of relief that the circumſtances of the caſe will admit. The ſyſtem of the poor laws, in gene⯑neral, I certainly do moſt heartily condemn, as I have expreſſed in another place, but I am in⯑clined to think that their operation in the pre⯑ſent ſcarcity has been advantageous to the country. The principal benefit which they have produced, is exactly that which is moſt bitterly complained of—the high price of all the neceſ⯑ſaries of life. The poor cry out loudly at this price; but, in ſo doing, they are very little aware of what they are about; for it has un⯑doubtedly been owing to this price that a much greater number of them has not been ſtarved.

It was calculated that there were only two-thirds of an average crop laſt year. Probably, even with the aid of all that we imported, the deficiency ſtill remained a fifth or ſixth. Sup⯑poſing ten millions of people in the iſland; the whole of this deficiency, had things been left to their natural courſe, would have fallen almoſt excluſively on two, or perhaps three millions of the pooreſt inhabitants, a very con⯑ſiderable number of whom muſt in conſequence have ſtarved. The operation of the pariſh al⯑lowances, [20] by raiſing the price of proviſions ſo high, cauſed the diſtreſs to be divided among five or ſix millions, perhaps, inſtead of two or three, and to be by no means unfelt even by the remainder of the population.

The high price, therefore, which is ſo much complained of by the poor, has eſſentially mi⯑tigated their diſtreſs by bringing down to their level two or three millions more, and making them almoſt equal ſharers in the preſſure of the ſcarcity.

The further effects of the high price have been to enforce a ſtrict economy in all ranks of life; to encourage an extraordinary importa⯑tion, and to animate the farmer by the powerful motive of ſelf-intereſt to make every exertion to obtain as great a crop as poſſible the next year.

If economy, importation, and every poſſible encouragement to future production, have not the faireſt chance of putting an end to the ſcarcity, I confeſs myſelf at a loſs to ſay what better means can be ſubſtituted. I may undoubtedly on this ſubject be much miſtaken; but to me, I own, they appear more calculated to anſwer the pur⯑poſe intended, than the hanging any number of farmers and cornfactors that could be named.

[21] No inference, therefore, is meant to be drawn againſt what has been done for the relief of the poor in the preſent ſcarcity, though it has with⯑out doubt greatly raiſed the price of proviſions. All that I contend for is, that we ſhould be aware of the effect of what we ourſelves have done, and not lay the blame on the wrong perſons.

If the cauſe, which I have detailed, be ſuffi⯑cient to account for the preſent high price of proviſions, without the ſuppoſition of any unfair dealing among the farmers and cornfactors, we ought ſurely to bear the preſent preſſure like men labouring under a diſorder that muſt have its courſe, and not throw obſtacles in the way of returning plenty, and endanger the future ſupplies of our markets, by encouraging the popular cla⯑mour, and keeping the farmers and corn-dealers in perpetual fear for their lives and property.

To ſuppoſe that a year of ſcarcity can paſs without diſtreſſing ſeverely a large part of the in⯑habitants of a country, is to ſuppoſe a contra⯑diction in the nature of things. I know of no other definition of a ſcarcity than the failure of the uſual quantity of proviſions; and if a great part of the people had but juſt enough before, they muſt undoubtedly have leſs than enough at [22] ſuch a period. With regard to the ſcarcity being artificial, it appears to me ſo impoſſible, that, till it has been proved that ſome man or ſet of men, with a capital of twenty or thirty millions ſterling, has bought up half the corn in the country, I own I muſt ſtill diſbelieve it. On this ſubject, however, I know that I differ from ſome very reſpectable friends of mine, among the common people, who ſay that it is quite im⯑poſſible that there can be a real ſcarcity, becauſe you may get what quantity of corn you pleaſe, if you have but money enough; and to ſay the truth, many perſons, who ought to be better in⯑formed, argue exactly in the ſame way. I have often talked with labouring men on this ſubject, and endeavoured to ſhow them, that if they, or I, had a great deal of money, and other peo⯑ple had but little, we could undoubtedly buy what quantity of corn we liked, by taking away the ſhares of thoſe who were leſs rich; but that if all the people had the ſame ſum, and that there was not enough corn in the country to ſupply all, we could not get what we wanted for money, though we poſſeſſed millions. I never found, however, that my rhetoric produced much im⯑preſſion.

The cry at preſent is in favour of ſmall farms, [23] and againſt middle men. No two clamours can well be more inconſiſtent with each other, as the deſtruction of the middle men would, I conceive, neceſſarily involve with it the deſtruction of ſmall farmers. The ſmall farmer requires a quick re⯑turn of his ſcanty capital to enable him to pay his rent and his workmen; and muſt therefore ſend his corn to market almoſt immediately after harveſt. If he were required to perform the office of corn-dealer, as well as farmer, and wait to regulate his ſupplies to the demands of the markets, a double capital would be abſolutely neceſſary to him, and not having that, he would be ruined.

Many men of ſenſe and information have at⯑tributed the dearneſs of proviſions to the quan⯑tity of paper in circulation. There was un⯑doubtedly great reaſon for apprehenſion, that when, by the ſtoppage of the Bank to pay in ſpecie, the emiſſion of paper ceaſed to have its natural check, the circulation would be over⯑loaded with this currency; but this certainly could not have taken place to any conſiderable extent without a ſenſible depreciation of bank notes in compariſon with ſpecie. As this depre⯑ciation did not happen, the progreſs of the evil muſt have been ſlow and gradual, and never [24] could have produced the ſudden and extraor⯑dinary riſe in the price of proviſions which was ſo ſenſibly felt laſt year, after a ſeaſon of mode⯑rate cheapneſs, ſubſequent to the ſtoppage of the Bank.

There is one circumſtance, however, that ought to be attended to. To circulate the ſame, or nearly the ſame^*, quantity of commodities through a country, when they bear a much higher price, muſt require a greater quantity of the medium, whatever that may be. The cir⯑culation naturally takes up more. It is pro⯑bable, therefore, that the Bank has found it ne⯑ceſſary to iſſue a greater number of its notes on this account. Or, if it has not, this deficiency has been ſupplied by the country bankers, who have found that their notes now ſtay out longer, and in greater quantity, than they did before the ſcarcity, which may tempt many to overtrade their capitals. If the quantity of paper, there⯑fore, in circulation has greatly increaſed during the laſt year, I ſhould be inclined to conſider it rather as the effect than the cauſe of the high price of proviſions. This ſulneſs of circulating [25] medium, however, will be one of the obſtacles in the way to returning cheapneſs.

The public attention is now fixed with anxiety towards the meeting of Parliament, which is to relieve us from our preſent difficulties; but the more conſiderate do not feel very ſanguine on this ſubject, knowing how little is to be done in this ſpecies of diſtreſs by legiſlative inter⯑ference. We interfere to fix the aſſize of bread. Perhaps one of the beſt interferences of the Legiſlature, in the preſent inſtance, would be to aboliſh that aſſize. I have certainly no ten⯑dency to believe in combinations and conſpi⯑racies; but the great interval that elapſes be⯑tween the fall of wheat and the fall of flour, compared with the quick ſucceſſion of the riſe of flour to the riſe of wheat, would almoſt tempt one to ſuppoſe, that there might be ſome little management in the return of the meal weighers to the Lord Mayor. If the public ſuffer in this inſtance, it is evidently owing to the aſſize, without which, the opportunity of any ſuch ma⯑nagement would not exiſt. And what occaſion can there be for an aſſize in a city like London, in which there are ſo many bakers? If ſuch a re⯑gulation were ever neceſſary, it would appear to be moſt ſo in a country village or ſmall town, [26] where perhaps there is but one perſon in the trade, and who might, therefore, for a time, have an opportunity of impoſing on his cuſtomers; but this could not take place where there was ſuch room for competition as in London. If there were no aſſize, more attention would be conſtantly paid to the weight and quality of the bread bought; and the bakers who ſold the beſt in theſe two reſpects would have the moſt cuſ⯑tom. The removal of this regulation would remove, in a great meaſure, the difficulty about brown bread, and a much greater quantity of it would probably be conſumed.

The ſoup-ſhops, and every attempt to make a nouriſhing and palatable food of what was be⯑fore not in uſe among the common people, muſt evidently be of great ſervice in the preſent diſ⯑treſs.

It is a fact now generally acknowledged, and it has lately received an official ſanction in a letter of the Duke of portland to the Lord Lieutenant of the county of Oxford, that of late years, even in the beſt ſeaſons, we have not grown corn ſufficient for our own conſumption; whereas, twenty years ago, we were in the con⯑ſtant habit of exporting grain to a very conſider⯑able amount. Though we may ſuppoſe that [27] the agriculture of the country has not been in⯑creaſing, as it ought to have done, during this period; yet we cannot well imagine that it has gone backwards. To what then can we attri⯑bute the preſent inability in the country to ſup⯑port its inhabitants, but to the increaſe of po⯑pulation? I own that I cannot but conſider the late ſevere preſſures of diſtreſs on every de⯑ficiency in our crops, as a very ſtrong exem⯑plification of a principle which I endeavoured to explain in an eſſay publiſhed about two years ago, entitled, An Eſſay on the Principle of Population, as it affects the future Improve⯑ment of Society. It was conſidered by many who read it, merely as a ſpecious argument, in⯑applicable to the preſent ſtate of ſociety; be⯑cauſe it contradicted ſome preconceived opi⯑nions on theſe ſubjects. Two years reflection have, however, ſerved ſtrongly to convince me of the truth of the principle there advanced, and of its being the real cauſe of the continued depreſſion and poverty of the lower claſſes of ſociety, of the total inadequacy of all the pre⯑ſent eſtabliſhments in their favour to relieve them, and of the periodical returns of ſuch ſeaſons of diſtreſs as we have of late experi⯑enced.

[28] The eſſay has now been out of print above a year; but I have deferred giving another edi⯑tion of it in the hope of being able to make it more worthy of the public attention, by apply⯑ing the principle directly and excluſively to the exiſting ſtate of ſociety, and endeavouring to illuſtrate the power and univerſality of its opera⯑tion from the beſt authenticated accounts that we have of the ſtate of other countries. Particular engagements in the former part of the time, and ſome moſt unforeſeen and unfortunate inter⯑ruptions latterly, have hitherto prevented me from turning my attention, with any effect, towards this ſubject. I ſtill, however, have it in view. In the mean time I hope that this haſty attempt to add my mite to the public ſtock of information, in the preſent emergency, will be received with candour.