THE South-Sea SCHEME EXAMIN'D, &c.

THE calamitous Circumſtances in which too many are invol⯑ved, from the preſent languiſh⯑ing State of Publick Credit, is a Matter of too great Impor⯑tance to be paſs'd by unregarded: It calls upon every Perſon who bears any Regard to the Intereſt of his Country, to exert himſelf in the Support of that Credit wherein no Briton can be unconcerned.

[2]The Deſign of the few following Leaves is not to reflect but to examine, not to flat⯑ter but to ſtate, not to aggravate but to reconcile every Man to his own Intereſt; by making an impartial and fair Examina⯑tion into the South-Sea Scheme, and endea⯑vouring to demonſtrate the Reaſonableneſs thereof, after the beſt Manner which a Per⯑ſon furniſh [...]d only with ſuch Materials as have been publiſhed, is enabled to do.

In order therefore, to conceive as clear⯑ly as poſſible, of the real Value of South-Sea Stock, as well as of the Reaſonableneſs of the Terms given to all the Proprietors of the Debts redeemable and irredeemable, I ſhall purſue the following Method.

Firſt, I ſhall lay down a ſhort State of the ſeveral Branches which compoſe the Debts already ſubſcribed, or to be ſubſcribed into the South-Sea Stock: and thoſe are com⯑monly diſtinguiſhed as follows, viz.

[3]The Government allowing the Company 20 Years Purchaſe for every long Annuity, and 14 Years Purchaſe for every ſhort One, gives them a Liberty to create 30,981,698l. or thereabouts, new Stock, and thereby to enlarge their Capital till it amounts to 42,184,408l. Stock or thereabouts. Thus much for the particular Branches to be taken into the Stock.

Secondly, Let us enquire into the Amount of the South-Sea Stock, provided the whole Debt was ſubſcribed upon the Terms pro⯑poſed: And upon this Head, it will be neceſſary to diſtinguiſh, between that Part of the irredeemable Debt ſubſcribed laſt April at 375l. and the remaining Part thereof, together with the redeemable Debt to be taken in at 400l. per Cent.

Subſcribed in April at 375l. per Cent.

[4]It is to be obſerved, that the laſt men⯑tioned Capital may not be perfectly exact, by reaſon no Diſtinction is made between the 99 Years Annuities, and the 14 per Cents, they both being included under one Head of Long Annuities, and the like Years Purchaſe in Stock given for each. The ſame is to be obſerved of the Lottery 1710, where Blanks and Prizes are likewiſe inclu⯑ded under the ſame Head: But this cauſes little Difference in the Capital Stock given for either, but only in the Bonds.

Remaining Part of the Debts, as well Redeemable as Irredeemable, to be taken into the Stock at 400l. per Cent.

[5]Hence it is evident, that about 10,325,824l. Capital Stock, or thereabouts, would re⯑deem the whole 30,981,706l. of Debts, ſuppoſing the ſame to be all ſubſcribed into the Stock upon the before-mentioned Terms: The Bonds excepted in this Account.

Suppoſing the whole Debt to be thus ſubſcribed, what remains of the Stock, may either be ſold, or divided out, in ſuch manner as ſhall be moſt advantageous to the Company: Of which the underwritten Sums have been ſold upon the following Conſiderations, viz.

[6]Here it muſt be obſerv'd, that the South-Sea Capital, at preſent, does not amount to 34,689,121l. by reaſon the whole Debt is not ſubſcribed in; ſo that probably there may be yet 10 Millions of Stock to diſpoſe of.

Having thus far given ſome View of the Amount of the South Sea Capital, I ſhall endeavour to demonſtrate the Reaſonable⯑neſs of the Terms given by the South-Sea Company, as well as the Advantageouſneſs of accepting them. To do which in the moſt convincing manner, I ſhall beg Leave to ſet a Valuation upon the reſpective Funds, at the Time the Company firſt began to engage to redeem them: And then ſhew the Advantage accruing from the Exchange.

Firſt, as to the Valuation of the re⯑ſpective Funds.

The Long Annuities never exceeded 25 Years Purchaſe, and were look'd upon as very dear at that Rate, it bringing but 4l. per Ann. to the Purchaſer.

The 9 per Cents, and Lottery 1710, ſold for about 14 Years Purchaſe.

[7]The 5 and 4 per Cent. Redeemables can⯑not be valued at above Par, as they were liable to be paid off at any time without Notice. And I believe it is pretty certain, that the Proprietors of the 5l. per Cent. Funds would gladly have accepted of 4l. per Cent. rather than have been paid off.

If this be a fair Valuation, let us examine into the Reaſonableneſs and Advantageouſ⯑neſs of the Terms given by the South-Sea Company.

And Firſt, Every Long Annuitant, who ſubſcribed in April laſt, received in Stock, Bonds and Money, after the Rate of 36½ Years Purchaſe for an Annuity, which till then was not worth more than 25 Years Purchaſe.

In like manner, every Proprietor of the 9 per Cents, or Lottery 1710, received in Stock, Bonds, and Money, about 19½ Years Purchaſe for what would not have ſold for 15.

As to the Terms at preſent given to the 2d Subſcribers, they receive in Stock after the Rate of 35½ Years Purchaſe.

And the 9 per Cents, and Lottery 1710, receive in Stock about 18½ Years Purchaſe.

[8]Every Proprietor of the Redeemables re⯑ceives 110l. Stock for 390l. (Intereſt be⯑ing allowed to them to Michaelmas 1720.) which in Effect is taking the Stock at 354l. 1 [...] s. per Cent.

It will eaſily be perceived from what is advanced, that the South-Sea Stock is va⯑lued at 400l. per Cent. which perhaps may be objected to, conſidering the Price it ſells for.

And here it muſt be confeſs'd with the greateſt Concern, that unreaſonable Jealou⯑ſies, groundleſs Fears, the moſt unaccounta⯑ble Apprehenſions, or rather an univerſal Infatu [...]ion, has ſo far ſeized on Mankind, as to run down the Stock much below its Value and beyond all Expectation, to the un [...]ing of many, and the Loſs of moſt: Although every Proceeding, which has in ſome meaſure occaſioned theſe Loſſes, is far from being juſtifiable; yet a great Number of em muſt be attributed to the Miſconduct of thoſe upon whom they have fall [...] S [...]e ariſing [...] from an inſa⯑tiable Deſ [...] [...] g [...]ing Treaſ [...], not thought of by our Anceſtors, and thereby have neglected [...] Oppo [...] which would have [...] Happineſs [...] to them⯑ſelves [9] and their Families, while others by purchaſing vaſtly beyond what their Abili⯑ties could make good, are plunged into ir⯑retrievable Ruin.

But to come to the main Point, which is to endeavour to ſhew the due Value of the Stock.

I hope no one will, in this Particular, too ſtrictly adhere to Hudibras's Rule, which implies that nothing is worth more than it will bring: For at preſent it muſt be ſaid, that the South-Sea Stock ſells at a Diſcount, and below its Value.

For were the Stock to be ſold only at 50l. per Cent. and every Man ſhould determine to diſpoſe of his own, it would be impoſſi⯑ble to find Purchaſers for it; and yet the Stock in Reality would be no ways the worſe for it. And to demonſtrate this the more clearly: Suppoſe every Proprietor of a Landed Eſtate ſhould reſolve to ſell it, it would not be poſſible among our ſelves to find Purchaſers at 3 Years Purchaſe for the whole: Though every Man at preſent would look upon an Eſtate at 20 Years Purchaſe, as a moſt extraordinary Bargain: And yet no Man thinks the worſe of his Eſtate, or would be induc'd to part with it upon ſo ſmall a Conſideration.

[10]To judge of the real Value of the Stock, muſt be by the Dividends, the Company will be able to make upon the Stock, and the Continuance of them: And I hope to make it appear, that the Stock is worth 400l. per Cent. by ſhewing that the Company is able to divide after the Rate of 30 per Cent. upon their Stock, for ſuch a Number of Years, as will reimburſe every Proprietor his full Principal and Intereſt for every Share purchaſed at that Rate.

Theſe Dividends are to be made good out of the Annual Sums payable by the Go⯑vernment, and out of the Profits which the Company gain or make by their Stock.

Their Profits ariſe three Ways, from the Stock already ſold, the remaining Part to he diſpoſed of, and the Loans upon the Stock.

I preſume it is not to be expected from a private Perſon to point out at what Times, in what Proportions, and at what Rates the remaining Stock ſhould be diſpoſed of, that being ſubmitted to the Ability and Management of thoſe Gentlemen whoſe P [...] [...] is: But this I beg leave to ſay, that [...] payable by the Govern⯑ment to the Company, the Profits already [11] made, the Advantages of their Loans, and a prudent Diſpoſition of what remains, will enable the Company to divide 30 per Cent. upon their Stock, for ſuch a Term of Years as will reimburſe every Proprie⯑tor his full Principal and Intereſt.

As for Inſtance, every Long Annuitant ſubſcribing 100l. per Annum, upon the firſt Propoſal receives 254l. per Annum, which if continued 14 Years, Reimburſes a Principal Sum of 2500l. with Intereſt of 5l. per Cent. thereon: Which Sum was the juſt Value or Worth of his Annuity: So that the Sub⯑ſcriber not only receives an annual Sum of 125l. in Lieu of 100l. but is a Gainer of 770l. Capital Stock, and 575l. in Bonds or Money, over and above the 2500l. by him ſubſcribed.

Upon the laſt Propoſal, every long An⯑nuitant receives 264l. for his ſubſcribed 100l. per Annum; which gives the like Ad⯑dition to his yearly Income, and will reim⯑burſe the Sum of 2500l. with 5l. per Cent. Intereſt in 13 Years; and he be further entitled to 88 [...] l. Capital Stock without Bonds.

Every ſhort Annuitant will, in 14 Years, be reimburſed the reſpective Sum by him [12] ſubſcribed, the ſame being valued at 1 [...] Years Purchaſe, with Intereſt thereon at 5 [...] per Cent. and be a Gainer of ſo much Stock or Bonds, as he received for them.

As to the Redeemable Proprietors, they receive the Stock, as has been before obſer⯑ved, at the Rate of 354l. 10s. per Cent ▪ which bears Intereſt after the Rate of abou [...] 8l. 9s. 3d. upon the Sum ſubſcribed▪ Which continued for 16 Years, will reim⯑burſe the Principal and Intereſt to the Pro⯑prietors at 4l. per Cent. and in 18 Years, a [...] 5l. per Cent. and they be Gainers of the Stock they poſſeſs.

Whatever further may be thought upon for the Service of the Company, 'tis not to be doubted but the Legiſlative Power will grant every thing reaſonable, to enable them to go thro ſo great an Undertaking, as that of reducing the whole National Debt.

Having gone through all the Particulars I at firſt propoſed, and endeavour'd to de⯑monſtrate the Reaſonableneſs of the South-Sea Scheme, as well as to ſhew the Advan⯑tages ariſing thereby; I beg Leave to ad⯑dreſs my ſelf to every body, in Defence and Support of the Publick Credit; be⯑cauſe [13] the Evil being from our ſelves, muſt by our ſelves be relieved.

I ſhall call upon every Body, becauſe no Perſon is unconcerned, as every one will find when 'tis too late, that does not exert himſelf in this Juſt and National Cauſe.

Thoſe who enjoy Favours from the Go⯑vernment, are firſt obliged by their Au⯑thority, Example and Advice to engage themſelves and all others over whom they have any Influence in this juſt Cauſe. Thoſe who receive no particular Favours from the Government, but live in the quiet and pea⯑ceable Enjoyment of their own, and profeſs themſelves and would be treated as Friends to this preſent happy Eſtabliſhment, ought not to be unactive for its Support, much leſs, if not neceſſitated, to make any De⯑mand to diſtreſs the Publick Credit.

Thoſe not engaged in the publick Funds, are as much concerned to ſupport the Cre⯑dit of them, as thoſe engaged, as all will feel the good or ill Effects of their Sup⯑port or Decay.

A Decay of Credit muſt unavoidably end in a Decay of Subſtance. The Farmer will find no Market to take off the Produce and [14] Effects of his Labour, and conſequently be unable to pay his Landlord. The Mer⯑chants will find no Demands for their Com⯑modities, and the induſtrious Manufacturer no Employment for his Hands. As the Poor will increaſe, the Means of relieving them will leſſen daily.

Theſe are Circumſtances which ſhould awaken all of us to guard againſt them, as they are more eaſy to be prevented than remedied.

Let us not join Hands to work out our own Deſtruction, and give up that Peace, Trade and Wealth, which the united Power and Artifices of our Enemies has hitherto in vain laboured to rob us of.

Let no Man through unjuſt Fears or groundleſs Jealouſies, lock up his Treaſure in his Coffers, and boaſt himſelf upon a Security which will prove imaginary: Let every Man place his Strength in the Sup⯑port of the Government, and the Proſpe⯑rity of his Country: And as there is no Attempt made to hurt us, let every Man conſider where ſuch Intereſt is allowed, or ſuch Security given for Money, as in Great Britain? Where has publick Faith ever been ſo inviolably maintained? What great⯑er [15] Security can be deſired, where all the publick Funds are appropriated, the Intereſt, Wealth and Credit of the whole Nation is engaged to ſupport, as it now is by the late happy and ſeaſonable Agreement be⯑tween the Bank of England and the South-Sea Company?

Upon the whole, as we are bleſſed with a wiſe and good Prince, a faithfull and able Miniſtry, and a Parliament capable and diſpoſed to concert ſuch Meaſures as tend to the common Intereſt of all: Let us join our Endeavours to their Reſolutions, to re⯑trieve the Difficulties we labour under; then will our Credit ſoon revive, our Trade flou⯑riſh, and we become a great, happy and powerful People to all ſucceeding Ge⯑nerations.